Modeling the Impact of Tobacco Use and Regulations on Vulnerable Populations

PROJECT 4 Abstract Policymakers are considering flavor restriction policies and other tobacco regulations, but lack detailed scientific information about how such policies could affect different US population groups. To address this need, we will develop validated tobacco simulation models to project the impact of flavor restrictions on tobacco use and downstream health outcomes for various population groups. While existing simulation models consider cigarette smoking, with some now also assessing ENDS use, cigar smoking has yet to be included in such models. This project aims to characterize cigarette, cigar, and ENDS patterns of use across population groups by sex, age, and education level (Aim 1). We will develop simulation models of cigarette, cigar, and ENDS use for key demographics (Aim 2). We will estimate the effects of flavor restrictions on cigarettes, cigars, and ENDS using information from quasi-experimental studies, systematic reviews, and expert consultations (Aim 3). Finally, we plan to project the impact of flavor restrictions on US tobacco product use patterns and downstream mortality outcomes (Aim 4). These analyses will provide a solid foundation for studying the impact of other potential regulations on tobacco-related health outcomes. As part of the Center for the Assessment of the Tobacco Regulations (CAsToR), this project will provide the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) with much needed external modeling research that evaluates: 1) the impact of flavor restrictions on tobacco use behaviors (Scientific domain: Behavior); 2) the long-term impact of tobacco products and flavor restrictions on overall health (Scientific domain: Health Effects); and 3) the potential differential impacts of flavor restrictions and tobacco-related health outcomes across US population groups (Scientific domain: Impact Analysis).