Comparative modeling of gastric cancer health drivers and prevention in the US and globally

Gastric cancer (GC), specifically gastric adenocarcinoma, is the fifth most common cancer and remains a major cause of cancer-related mortality in the United States. Risk of GC varies across groups, reflecting differences in underlying exposures such as Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection, smoking, and access to preventive care. Several developments are reshaping the landscape of GC prevention, including a better understanding of disease natural history, new findings from prospective studies, and anticipated results from ongoing randomized trials. Because early GC detection can dramatically improve survival by enabling curative surgical or noninvasive endoscopic resection, new prevention and detection strategies have the potential to significantly improve population health. While H. pylori eradication has been a primary focus of prevention, variation in infection prevalence and outcomes underscores the importance of optimizing screen-and-treat interventions for groups at elevated risk. Another promising approach is targeted endoscopic screening for individuals with precursor lesions such as gastric intestinal metaplasia, who benefit from surveillance in many clinical settings. Identifying effective and cost-effective strategies to address these challenges in the United States remains a critical need. This work builds upon prior modeling and clinical studies of GC and H. pylori, secondary database analyses, and prevention research. The research team brings together expertise in simulation and comparative modeling, deep clinical knowledge across the spectrum of GC prevention and care, and a track record of informing cancer control policy. The overarching goal is to generate innovative, evidence-based tools to guide prevention and early detection strategies, improve efficiency of health care resources, and ultimately reduce the burden of gastric cancer in the U.S.