Center for Transformative Infectious Disease Research (CTIDR)

PROJECT 1 PROJECT DESCRIPTION Our proposed studies will investigate how extreme weather events and seasonal changes affect risk of spillover of zoonotic infections from bats. Our work will help identify evidence-based strategies to prevent disease emergence in multiple ecological settings. Bats are the known or progenitor hosts of four of the nine diseases identified by the World Health Organization as research priorities. Bats also may be exquisitely vulnerable to changes in weather because their food resources are seasonal and physiologically they are sensitive to temperature changes. We will leverage two long-running datasets on emerging pathogens from bat hosts to examine the role of weather in driving shedding patterns and spatial behavior of bats and likelihood of exposures in humans. Our methods, innovative both conceptually and methodologically, will use already collected datasets. We will integrate these datasets to move beyond assumptionladen correlations of spillover risk towards mechanistic understanding of how ecological, environmental, and host-viral drivers of infections influence disease emergence. Our work sets the stage for remote sensing methods to identify places and periods to prioritize for prevention of spillover. In Aim 1, we will identify weather-driven effects on the health of bats, diet, and paramyxo- and corona-, virus infection dynamics in Australia, using retrospective data collected previously by the PI. Hypothesis: We will observe higher prevalence of viral shedding in sampled bats after or during specific environmental conditions (e.g., hot, dry, then wet conditions, flood, high rainfall) and higher prevalence will be correlated to markers of bat health, diet and viral infection dynamics. We will use novel Bayesian multilevel models to analyze these data. In Aim 2: we will investigate how host space-use changes in relation to environmentally-driven resource availability and how these changes drive spatial and temporal overlap of bats and humans. Hypothesis: resource constraints on natural food sources will lead to increased contact between bats, humans, and bridging hosts. Our work will lead to strategies, derived from empirical data and modeling, that can help prevent spillover of pathogens from bats to humans. Preventing spillovers from bats in any part of the world reduces the risk of pandemics and reduces human mortality and morbidity in the United States; prevention of spillover is highly cost- effective when strategies are successful, and can lead to interventions that buffer effects of environmental change on sensitive species such as bats.