Core-001

Project summary The proposed ICEMR aims to address the complex challenges of malaria elimination in the Asia-Pacific region by providing evidence-based tools and knowledge for policymakers. The ICEMR will achieve this by conducting a coordinated set of field, laboratory, and mathematical modelling studies. The ICEMR Data and Modelling Core will support these studies in 3 major ways: 1) implementing an efficient data capture and management system using REDCap and establish procedures for efficient data sharing, 2) establishing a statistical support network for ICEMR investigators, and 3) developing advanced mathematical models for malaria transmission in highly endemic countries. A web-based REDCap data management platform will be designed that includes direct electronic data capture using tablets and a REDCap data server physically hosted at WEHI. The software is flexible and suitable for locations with minimal access to computers. This will allow for safe and efficient data capturing at point-of-care across sites and projects. All databases will be set up using standard formats that allow easy data sharing within and outside the project. The Core will develop procedures for efficient upload of epidemiological, vector and laboratory data to public repositories such as ClinEpiDB, VectorBase, PlasmoDB, and GitHub. To facilitate the use of research data for program management and policy making, project data will be incorporated, in near real-time, into an existing Tupaia.org sentinel site surveillance dashboard that is accessible to ICEMR researchers, local government and healthcare workers. The highly experienced team at WEHI and the University of Melbourne will provide statistical analysis support for ICEMR investigators and deliver in-country workshops. Mathematical malaria transmission modelling is essential to achieving this ICEMR’s objectives and will be used to develop optimized surveillance responses and assist with translating research findings into policy and programmatic implementation. To do this, the Core will extend and adapt its existing individual-based models of P. vivax and P. falciparum transmission in 3 important ways: 1) models will be adapted for very low and elimination settings to be able to predict the probability that an intervention will lead to local elimination; 2) single species models will be combined into a co-transmission model to investigate how co- infection of multiple Plasmodium species affects transmission; and 3) models will be made spatially explicit to better account for spatial heterogeneity in transmission and model spatially targeted surveillance and intervention approaches. The core modelers will collaborate closely with colleagues at Institut Pasteur Paris and where required can draw on the expertise of two large Australian infectious disease modelling networks. The Data Core team will be key to facilitating the translation of ICEMR research into evidence-based policies and interventions that could ultimately reduce the burden of malaria and improve public health outcomes in affected populations.