CAREER: Hydrogeologic implications of permafrost thaw - Developing a process-based understanding of biophysical controls and educational tools for rural communities

Increasing air temperatures in the Arctic are causing frozen ground known as permafrost to thaw. As permafrost thaws, liquid water can more easily travel below ground, increasing fresh groundwater availability. For the millions of people who live above permafrost, increase groundwater availability is beneficial as groundwater is less susceptible to contamination than surface water. Despite this known link between permafrost thaw and groundwater flow, permafrost regions are often excluded or oversimplified in large-scale groundwater studies, creating a critical gap in our knowledge of how climate warming will impact water resources. This project will integrate data collected across permafrost landscapes, numerical models, and statistical analyses to generate a conceptual framework on how warming air temperatures in the Arctic impact groundwater availability. Results will be used to create a permafrost hydrology educational module for rural Alaskan middle school students, to produce a children’s book about hydrology to increase a child’s sense of science identity, and expose undergraduate students at a public primarily undergraduate institution in the rural southeastern US to permafrost hydrology through the development of new courses, course modules, and training undergraduate researchers. Predicting future groundwater availability in the Arctic is complex due to nonlinear and unconstrained feedbacks between permafrost thaw and biophysical changes that affect snow distribution and ground temperatures, such as shifting rainfall extremes, subsiding microtopography, and shrub expansion. To address these challenges, this research will (1) determine the role of biophysical changes on groundwater flow in permafrost, and (2) quantify groundwater flow and availability in response to current and future climate perturbations by combining statistical analyses with an advanced groundwater-permafrost numerical model informed by existing spatially distributed hydrologic and remotely sensed data sets. In addition to increasing knowledge on groundwater availability in the Arctic, findings from this project will enhance understanding of saturation-controlled carbon dioxide and methane export hotspots and aid in anticipating at-risk Arctic infrastructure collapse due to groundwater flow. Project results will also be used by rural education partners in Alaska and the southeastern US, a K12 education specialist, and undergraduate students majoring in STEM, fine arts, and education to design and disseminate educational activities for rural communities. This award is co-funded by the Hydrologic Sciences and Artic Natural Sciences programs This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.