Strategic Redistricting and Government Interventions

Gerrymandering is the strategic redrawing of the boundaries of congressional and state legislative districts. In most US states (39 states), it is the state lawmakers themselves who draw the new electoral map. Beyond producing “bizarrely-shaped” districts that are not geographically compact or cohesive, gerrymandering appears to impact policy-making (both the ideological slant of actual policies and the allocation of public resources) through a variety of channels. This project claims that geographic disparities in turnout are key to understanding gerrymandering practices; and these disparities may be explained by differences in the share of the population eligible to vote (e.g., due to age or immigration status), the propensity to vote, or the easiness of registration and voting. The investigators will answer specific, policy-relevant, questions: Are there patterns of gerrymandering observed in practice that our theory helps understand and detect? What are the implications for policies and governmental resource allocation? There are three components to this research project. First, the project will develop a theoretical model of strategic redistricting in which voters differ not only in partisanship, but also in turnout rates. Existing models and measures of gerrymandering focus on difference in partisanship across individuals, ignoring other dimensions of heterogeneity. However, in practice, differences in turnout rates are substantial and cannot be ignored. Indeed, existing theories of gerrymandering cannot explain some patterns observed in practice. From the model, we will characterize the optimal map from the gerrymandering party's viewpoint and identify clear testable implications for the map that each party should draw. Our theory could help explain some puzzling redistricting patterns observed in practice. The second part of the project will test these implications using the proposed maps by legislators of both parties for the same state in the 2020 redistricting cycle in the U.S. Finally, in the third project, we focus on policy implications and the inequality in the allocation of governmental resources. How does gerrymandering affect the choice of policies or allocation of public resources across the space and the population? If gerrymandering affects the allocation of resources, how do future choices in terms of resource allocation affect the incumbent’s electoral map design? The authors will use their theory to guide empirical tests and policy recommendations on gerrymandering, which is a topic of great general interest. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.