NSF PRFB FY 2023: Considering evolutionary responses to temperature variability when predicting risk to climate change and disease in amphibians

This action funds an NSF Postdoctoral Research Fellowship in Biology for FY 2023, Integrative Research Investigating the Rules of Life Governing Interactions Between Genomes, Environment, and Phenotypes. The fellowship supports research and training of the fellow that will contribute to the area of Rules of Life in innovative ways. This research will address how the dual pressures of climate change and disease interact to affect one of the most endangered taxa on the planet, amphibians. While independently, climate change and emerging infectious diseases present daunting challenges to species persistence, together they can increase vulnerability by promoting pathogen growth rates, altering host immune response, and reducing host thermal tolerance. Most research in this area has focused on how temperature variability can increase the risk of disease, with few studies examining if the disease affects vulnerability to temperature extremes. Yet, understanding this is crucial, given that temperature variability and extremes are a trademark of climate change. This project will explore this question, as well as broaden diversity and increase participation in the Ecology and Evolutionary Biology field by supporting the development of an immersive summer experience for underrepresented high school students in amphibian disease ecology. This research will take an interdisciplinary approach to understand how the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) increases vulnerability to temperature variability in an amphibian host species. To do so, this project will quantify the relationship between disease prevalence, environment, phenotype, and genotype in the northern cricket frog (Acris crepitans), resulting in a predictive risk model. Specifically, the research will consider the importance of evolutionary responses to temperature variability and extreme events when predicting the risk to climate change and disease. The fellow will conduct an observational survey correlating local variation in thermal traits to Bd prevalence and microhabitat temperatures, an empirical experiment investigating if and how Bd alters thermal physiology, and a quantitative genetics experiment relating phenotypes to population-level genetic variance to predict the adaptive potential of thermal traits. This project will culminate in a predictive risk model that links Bd infection dynamics, host demography, thermal performance, and evolution to understand population-level resilience to changing wildlife disease dynamics under future climate change scenarios. This project will involve training the fellow in wildlife disease ecology and disease modeling, as well as providing opportunities to practice inclusive pedagogy through training and outreach. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.