DISES: Socio-environmental transformation and change following system collapse

This project will study transformation of integrated human and natural systems to help equip society with knowledge necessary for confronting drastic changes to earth’s ecosystems and impacts on the people who depend on them. Transformation refers to a fundamental change in the identity, structure, and function of a system. It is different from resilience, which is the ability of systems to retain their basic structure and function in the face of shocks and disturbance. Although important recent advancements in sustainability science have illuminated factors and conditions associated with resilience, processes such as climate change and habitat degradation can push systems beyond sustainability. This can amplify rates of extinction, poverty, food insecurity, and social unrest. Therefore, society also requires a science of transformation. Following the recent collapse of the sea cucumber fishery in Yucatan, Mexico, the project team will track changes in small-scale fishing communities and adjacent marine environments, answering two general research questions. First, how do socio-environmental systems behave following a collapse? Second, why do some socio-environmental systems transform after collapse while others revert to unsustainable patterns similar to those observed prior to collapse? The goal of answering these questions is to help society turn collapse and extinction events into opportunities to reorganize and transform integrated human and natural systems and provide more sustainable and equitable futures. Broader impacts of the study include graduate student training in science diplomacy this will equip them with the skills necessary to navigate ecologically and politically complex environmental challenges. Through established professional linkages with government agencies in Mexico and the United States and international organizations, the students, alongside the mentors on the project team, will employ science diplomacy skills to apply insights from the project to ongoing efforts in society to operationalize socio-environmental transformation. The project will advance theory and methods for socio-environmental transformation science. Integrating recent scholarship on socio-environmental transformation and findings from the Yucatan, Mexico sea cucumber fishery, the study will produce a Socio-environmental Transformation Framework. The Framework will facilitate scientists to identify and test combinations of factors associated with four divergent trajectories of transformation and resilience: 1) resilient socio-environmental systems, 2) resilient social systems linked to transforming environmental systems, 3) transforming social systems linked to resilient environmental systems, and 4) transforming socio-environmental systems. Compilation of fisheries data, scuba diving transects, and deep-water video transects will evaluate how remnant sea cucumber populations change following the collapse of the fishery and related ecological interactions. Social surveys, interviews, and focus groups will generate data to evaluate governance, livelihood, and gender dimensions of post-collapse social change. Based on these data, the international team will innovate and apply multi-disciplinary methods for detecting socio-environmental transformation and differentiating it from resilience: social-ecological network analysis, spatial analysis, and narrative analysis. Finally, a fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis will test hypotheses about which combinations of conditions are associated with transformation in 12 small-scale fishery socio-environmental systems. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.