CAREER: Game Theoretic Models for Robust Cyber-Physical Interactions: Inference and Design under Uncertainty

The long-term goal of this project is to build flexible models and efficient algorithms for large-scale, multi-agent, and uncertain cyber-physical systems. In settings such as traffic management, for example, practitioners face fundamental challenges due to complex dynamics, hierarchical influence, noncooperative actors, and hard-to-model uncertainty. Strong simplifying assumptions have become essential: for instance, many theoretical models of road networks take the form of static, deterministic, and/or aggregative games. In these instances, static assumptions make it possible to predict the aggregate impact of decisions such as tolling on traffic patterns. However, neglecting temporal dynamics and feedback effects can lead city planners to make myopic decisions, which may have unintended consequences as drivers adapt to one another's behavior over time. This project develops theoretical and algorithmic techniques to address some of the underlying challenges and will also support mentoring of graduate and undergraduate researchers, development of undergraduate course material, and outreach to local underrepresented communities. This NSF CAREER project aims to develop a sound algorithmic basis for game-theoretic inference and design in dynamic and multi-agent CPS. The specific goals of this project are threefold. The first goal is to formalize and solve a set of structural inference problems in noncooperative games that arise in transportation. For example, one such problem is to discover hierarchies of influence among decision-makers from observations of their actions. The second goal of this project is to design dynamic, time-varying mechanisms which influence agents’ decisions and induce desired outcomes. In transportation systems, these mechanisms correspond to tolls, bus routes, timetables, etc. The third and final goal considers stochastic variants of the aforementioned games and aims to develop a computationally-tractable theory of time-varying, feedback decision-making in these settings. This project will enable the analysis and design of cyber-physical systems which interact with one another in complex hierarchies and enable planners and regulators to guide these systems toward desired outcomes. Theory and algorithms will be validated in a physical laboratory testbed which emulates urban driving, via large-scale simulation of traffic in the city of Austin and using French air traffic management data. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.