Urban-based Domestic Land Investors and Rural Tree Cover Gain

This project examines factors that lead to the regeneration of forests in developing regions that have been deforested by people. In particular, the research examines the extent to which forest regrowth arises from the purchases of rural property by urban landowners, who may use the properties to cultivate tree crops. Using a combination of satellite imagery and ethnographic methods, the researchers can discern the extent to which forest regrowth is attributable to these rural-to-urban land sales. An ethnographic analysis of landowner priorities further elucidates the determinants of tree cover gain across multiple spatial and temporal scales. While contributing to geographical debates about forest transition theory, this research contributes to the management and stewardship of forests in regions that are the focus of conservation efforts. The project also contributes to the training of graduate and undergraduate students in the methods of environmental science. This Human-Environment research project will expand geographic theory on tree cover gain. Forest transition theory is attentive to the kinds of tree gain, including natural regeneration and anthropogenic plantings, but needs further empirical and theoretical considerations particularly on the role of geographically distant factors, known as tele-coupling. The project uses remote sensing analysis and place-based rural geographic study to substantiate the association between mapped tree gain and rural-to-urban land sales. The theoretical and practical outputs are timely given the confluence of global funding for land-based climate change mitigation with profound shifts in land markets. Many developing governments state in their climate change mitigation pledges that they intend to use funding to benefit rural citizens, but shifts in land markets may result in reduced land ownership by rural residents. Linkages between land markets and planted tree cover gain need to be studied to mitigate such unintended policy consequences, which may in turn lead to migration and food insecurity. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.