RAPID: Drivers and Improving Forecasts of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Wildfire Potential in Hawaii

Located in the heart of the Pacific Ocean, Hawaii’s unique geography and multiple microclimates make the archipelago particularly vulnerable to natural disasters such as extreme weather and wildfires. Accurate and long-term forecasts are critical for emergency preparedness, especially in light of the increasing frequency of devastating wildfires, such as the tragic event on Maui in August 2023. This research addresses this pressing need by advancing the understanding of what drives the intraseasonal variability of wildfires in Hawaii and improving the accuracy of long-term wildfire forecasts. Such advances could have a profound impact on society by enabling more effective emergency planning, thereby protecting both human lives and natural ecosystems. This research focuses on two primary objectives. First, the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) variability of wildfires in Hawaii will be examined using a combination of historical data and reanalysis techniques. The goal is to quantify the S2S variability of wildfires and fire weather in Hawaii and identify the climatic factors that contribute to longer-term fire risk. Second, a forecasting platform will be developed to predict wildfire potential at the S2S scale. State-of-the-art numerical models will be used to generate detailed forecasts that span several weeks into the future. The results of this research will not only provide new insights into the mechanisms that drive wildfires in Hawaii, but will also provide a basic framework for improved emergency response planning, benefiting multiple stakeholders. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.