CAREER: A system of pleas: Using a role-playing simulation to test plea decision models

Every United States citizen is guaranteed a number of unique rights: the right to a jury of our peers; the right to confront our accusers; the right to present our own witnesses--ultimately, the right to a speedy and public trial. Those fortunate enough to avoid the scrutiny of the justice system never need exercise these rights. Those who do find themselves entangled in the criminal justice system also rarely exercise these rights. Today's accused frequently forgo their right to a trial, and all related rights, by entering a guilty plea. Guilty pleas have been increasing over the last 40 years and now account for over 95% of criminal convictions. The shift away from trials and toward pleas has unquestionably increased judicial efficiency, allowing defendants faster case resolutions. Consequently, it is not the increase in pleas, but the increase in false guilty pleas--cases in which a defendant subsequently proven innocent pleads guilty--that is particularly worrying. The National Registry of Exonerations has reported that guilty pleas were a factor in approximately 15% of wrongful conviction cases, but believes that many more false guilty pleas have never, and will never be discovered. Juvenile defendants are especially vulnerable to pleading guilty falsely. Given the transformation of our criminal justice system to one of pleas, it is of critical importance that we increase our understanding of what factors might lead one to plead guilty, especially when factually innocent. Our current understanding of the "deals" that lead so many to plead guilty is often tied to the shadow-of-the-trial (SoT) model, which posits that plea outcomes rely solely on the discrepancy in penalties from a plea deal versus a trial conviction, factoring in the probability of conviction at trial. Yet, research has shown that both the actual guilt status and age of the accused can significantly and systematically impact plea outcomes. Thus, the research will be conducted with two broad objectives: 1) testing the predictive validity of the SoT model against an updated model, which incorporates an interactive effect of guilt status and age on plea outcomes; and 2) expanding, testing, and disseminating novel plea-simulation software designed for both research and educational purposes. The research will employ a 2 (innocent or guilty) x 3 (conviction probability: 20%, 50%, or 80%) x 3 (plea penalty/offer: 6 months, 12 months, or 18 months) between-participants design. We will recruit a sample of college students, an adult sample, and a juvenile sample. The results of the proposed research could have important policy implications regarding current plea procedures. If, for instance, significant penalty discrepancies are shown to impact the innocent more than the guilty, it would provide justification for reining in the discounts prosecutors can offer during plea negotiations. Additionally, the simulation software will include an educational extension designed to improve comprehension of the plea process and its consequences among juveniles. Ultimately, the research will contribute significantly to understanding of how cases are now adjudicated in the United States. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.