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NOBEL PRIZE 2026

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NSFDirectorate for Mathematical and Physical Sciences

Data-adaptive multivariate inference with finite sample guarantees

Active
Institution
Stanford University, CA
Principal investigator
Guenther Walther
Funding
$300K
Duration
2024–2027
Open portfolio

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Abstract

Working with complex data requires a good data structure in order to efficiently organize these data in a computer. The research project will show that a certain popular data structure also has surprising and advantageous statistical properties. It will be shown how these properties can be used to give performance guarantees for a number of statistical procedures and that these guarantees lead to optimal statistical inference. In particular, the project will show how these properties can be used to overcome a problem that affects many multivariate statistical analyses and which is known as the `curse of dimensionality' or `empty space phenomenon'. The research project will also involve mentoring undergraduate students in the context of summer research projects and provide research training opportunities for graduate students. k-d trees are space-partitioning binary trees that are popular in computer science because of their computational efficiency. This project will show that k-d trees also have advantageous stochastic properties that can be used to effectively address a number of challenging statistical problems. In particular, the research will show how the data-adaptive multiresolution partitions generated by a k-d tree can be used to avoid the `curse of dimensionality' or `empty space phenomenon' that afflicts many multivariate statistical procedures. It will also show that the resulting inference comes with finite sample guarantees and that it satisfies certain optimality properties. The to-be-developed methodology will be used to address a number of important problems, such as inference about a multivariate log-concave distribution. Finding the maximum likelihood estimator for such a distribution is computationally very expensive, even for low-dimensional observations. The research will show how the data-adaptive partition can be used to compute a confidence band for a log-concave density in a fast way, and it will establish statistical optimality properties for these bands. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

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Directorate for Mathematical and Physical SciencesMachine Learning TheorySTATISTICSstatisticalinferencetreesdimensionalityadvantageousmultivariateoptimalityguarantees

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