Climate Change, Local Institutions and Conflict

This project investigates the effects of climate change on human livelihoods including food insecurity, deteriorating health conditions, migration intentions, and changes in traditional livelihoods. Changes in temperatures combined with growing rainfall variability bring unprecedented challenges to rural livelihoods and communities. Rural populations are among the most vulnerable to environmental changes and it is uncertain if pressures on declining resources lead to more reliance on existing cooperative customs or result in increases in violence. This project investigates how environmental change could contribute to an increase in social conflict between local groups and between states, and possibly increase processes of out-migration. Such negative impacts are expected to be most evident in areas with the lowest capacity to adapt to unforeseen shocks and disturbances. This project examines environmental change effects on rural populations that are highly vulnerable to climate change: a diversity of livelihoods, ethnic groups and environmental contexts is examined to allow careful assessment in multiple locations. Rural livelihoods are tightly linked to climate patterns, particularly in areas where proximal agricultural production is central to food security. This research identifies household adaptations to environmental stressors caused by weather variability. The effect of seasonal weather changes on traditional practices of cooperation or new conflict dynamics is examined via a large panel survey of rural households. These survey data are integrated in a data analysis incorporating ancillary data including those capturing institutional dynamics and food support programs. The roles of national and local governmental institutions, as well as traditional customary practices in the determination of natural resource distribution are documented and analysis investigates the effectiveness of food assistance programs as coping mechanisms for rural households. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.