Linking environmental variability and species-environment relationships to understand fluctuating populations

The project will test how the environment and geographic distance between populations affects variation in population size. The number of individuals in a population does not stay constant through time, but varies because of birth, death, and dispersal. The environment influences these processes, leading to the idea that population size will vary more in more variable environments. This project will look at how changes in population size through time is affected by different environments and disturbance. Conservation and restoration efforts will benefit greatly from being able to predict how population size will fluctuate in a changing environment. The project will help to identify populations that are at risk of extinction. The project will also provide students with hands-on research experience and will teach undergraduates how to build mathematical models. The project will assess the role of environmental variability on temporal variability in population dynamics using a combination of observational data from the National Ecological Observatory Network paired with theoretical population and community models. First, the project will test if populations in variable environments are more variable (less stable) given the context of the local community of interacting species. Next, the research will examine the potential underlying trait or phylogenetic basis for the strength of the relationship between environmental variability and population variability. Finally, the researchers will explore species population variability across species geographic ranges, providing a better understanding of population variability across space as a function of environmental variability, traits, and geographic range position. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.