EMBRACE-AGS-Growth: Modeling Space Weather as a Nonlinear Control System

This project aims to improve our ability to predict and understand geomagnetic storms— significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field caused by solar activity. These storms can impact modern society by disrupting technologies such as power grids, satellite communications, and GPS navigation systems. By employing innovative mathematical models and applying control systems theory, the research seeks to characterize the dynamic behavior of Earth's magnetosphere before and during these extreme space weather events. The project's outcomes will contribute to safeguarding critical technological infrastructure, promoting the progress of science, and advancing national prosperity and welfare. For broader impact, the project emphasizes education and research excellence by mentoring undergraduate students and high school students, contributing to outreach, community engagement, and the development of future scientists and engineers. The research focuses on modeling the nonlinear dynamics of the magnetosphere using control systems approaches to forecast space weather. The key objectives include exploring space-weather control systems, parameterizing Lévy α-stable processes, developing stochastic fractional differential equation models, and assessing the probabilistic hazard level. By integrating control theory with advanced stochastic modeling techniques, this project aims to enhance the understanding of magnetospheric dynamics and improve predictive capabilities for geomagnetic storms. The anticipated outcomes include a compact description of the magnetospheric response to solar wind inputs, improved forecasting methods for space weather events, and the development of a well-trained STEM workforce through education and mentoring. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.