Collaborative Research: Identifying non-linearities in rainfall and river responses to consecutive Paleogene global warming events to inform the future

As our planet continues to warm, we are facing a future climate unlike anything humanity has ever experienced. To better understand and prepare for what might happen, this project examines periods in Earth’s distant past when global temperatures were much higher than today. While previous studies have focused on single warming events, this research will analyze more than ten consecutive events, providing more accurate and dependable insights into how the Earth responds to extreme warming. Using new, cutting-edge methods, the team will measure changes in rainfall intensity, flooding, and other climate shifts in ways that were not possible before. The knowledge gained will improve our ability to anticipate and manage risks such as flooding and extreme rainfall, strengthening our nation’s resilience and protecting public welfare. Beyond advancing the frontiers of climate science, the project will help to build a strong, competitive STEM workforce by integrating research findings into K–12 outreach and university teaching materials, thereby directly contributing to national priorities. This project aims to advance our fundamental understanding of how rainfall patterns and river systems respond to a changing climate by collecting new and unique data on extremely warm climates of the past. The team expects to generate novel insights, as this will be the first terrestrial dataset to (1) quantify both climate changes and Earth system responses across more than ten consecutive global warming events, and (2) apply innovative reconstruction and analytical methods to measure rainfall intensity and intermittency—key information that is difficult to obtain using traditional approaches. Combining these new methods with the traditional state-of-the-art stable isotopic and geochemical methods will allow the team to collect new and original data on precipitation changes and extremes, and determine whether these changes occurred gradually or involved sudden "tipping points" that lead to dramatic shifts. To reduce uncertainty typically associated with sedimentary record-based climate reconstructions, the study will focus on a single paleo-river system. Together, these efforts promise to deliver transformative insights into Earth’s past, providing critical context for understanding our planet’s future. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.