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NOBEL PRIZE 2026

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NSFDirectorate for Mathematical and Physical Sciences

Generative Models for Predictive Insights and Inference in Multimodal Data

Active
Institution
University of Minnesota-Twin Cities, MN
Principal investigator
Xiaotong T Shen
Funding
$175K
Duration
2025–2028
Open portfolio

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Abstract

The project utilizes generative artificial intelligence to create high-quality synthetic data that accurately represents complex real-world information—such as medical images, financial records, and social media text—while ensuring individual privacy is protected. By providing scientists, engineers, and students with safe and realistic data sets, the project accelerates discovery, strengthens the nation’s technological workforce, and supports informed decision-making in health, commerce, and security. Additionally, the open benchmarks and instructional materials generated by the project encourage participation in data science, allowing everyone to contribute to and benefit from scientific advancements. The research develops a unified Generative Prediction and Inference framework that combines diffusion processes, normalizing flows, and transfer learning to model joint distributions of tabular and unstructured modalities. The framework samples synthetic multimodal data to improve supervised tasks such as image captioning and question answering, delivers calibrated uncertainty estimates, and tests for hallucinations in large language models. Key contributions include algorithms for domain adaptation, reliability metrics for trustworthy AI, and agent-based tools that automate analysis of complex datasets. The resulting software and evaluation suites establish new standards for multimodal data synthesis and statistical inference. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

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Directorate for Mathematical and Physical SciencesArtificial Intelligence (AI)Machine Learning TheorySTATISTICSinferencemultimodalgenerativemultimodal datasynthetic datahallucinationsnormalizingencourage participation

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