RAPID: Trust Recovery and Leadership Preferences During Democratic Crises

This project examines how political uncertainty during democratic crises influences citizens' trust in political institutions and their preferences for leadership. By surveying the same group of respondents at four key moments, the research identifies who regains trust in institutions after an institutional crisis, how quickly this occurs, and how uncertainty shapes leadership preferences. It also investigates how demographic factors, such as gender and prior experience with autocratic regimes, affect these dynamics. The findings will provide insights for restoring public confidence in governance after crises and promoting inclusive leadership. To maximize societal impact, the project emphasizes broad dissemination through peer-reviewed publications, academic presentations, popular media, and publicly accessible anonymized survey data. This approach ensures the findings are accessible to researchers, policymakers, and stakeholders, guiding future research on democratic resilience and fostering practical solutions for inclusive governance. This project examines how democratic crises influence citizens’ trust in institutions and preferences for political leadership. The study proposes a longitudinal survey, recontacting 1,000 respondents at four critical junctures: the current peak of uncertainty, post-impeachment ruling, during the presidential campaign, and post-election. The survey measures institutional trust, leadership preferences, and respondents’ perceptions of political (un)certainty across these time points. It also embeds a conjoint experiment where respondents choose between leadership types. Together, the surveys and experiments offer insights into trust recovery and demonstrate how uncertainty in the political environment leads citizens to prefer different leadership traits. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.