NSF R2I2: Advanced Water Resilience through Collaborative Operational Strategies in the Southwest Incubator (AWRCOS Incubator)

The Advanced Water Resilience through Collaborative Operational Strategies (AWRCOS) Incubator focuses on improving water management in California’s San Joaquin Valley, a region of major agricultural importance. Communities and farms in the area face recurring challenges related to drought, flooding, and groundwater declines. This project combines modeling, water systems engineering, machine learning, and forecasting tools to develop practical solutions in partnership with local agencies and stakeholders. Strategies under evaluation include Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations and Managed Aquifer Recharge, which rely on real-time weather and streamflow data to guide water storage decisions, reduce the likelihood of flood damage, and support groundwater levels. The project emphasizes collaboration between researchers, local decision-makers, and community members to ensure that scientific tools are tailored to real-world needs. The approaches developed through this effort are intended to support both regional planning and broader resource management goals. By connecting forecast tools with operational decisions, AWRCOS aims to strengthen local capacity to respond to variable weather conditions and support continued agricultural productivity. The Advanced Water Resilience through Collaborative Operational Strategies (AWRCOS) Incubator addresses the increasing complexity of water management in California’s San Joaquin Valley, where weather and extreme stressors are compounding risks to agriculture, ecosystems, and communities. The project aims to develop adaptive water management strategies that respond to deep uncertainty in both weather and policy conditions. The central objective is to integrate Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations and Managed Aquifer Recharge with Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, enabling flexible decision-making that evolves over time in response to changing conditions. The project leverages significant prior investment in the region including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) data downscaled to 3 km developed for California, robust socio-economic data available for the region, and recent advancements in seasonal and subseasonal forecasts. Phase 1 prioritizes engaging regional stakeholders to gather detailed feedback and ensure that the solutions are developed to meet the needs of local water agencies, the agriculture industry and communities. Together these data and methods will be used to develop a decision support tool design and address the challenges and needs of the region that can be explored for the broader southwest. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.