Mapping plant trade as a driver of biological invasions

The commercial trade of plant species has shaped landscapes and societies for centuries, yet trade is also a major source of plant invasion. How do we balance the benefits of introducing plants for horticulture, agriculture, and medicine, against the costs of introducing invasions that cause ecological and socioeconomic disruption? To address this question, this research examines how the history and geography of plant trade connects to the contemporary distribution and impacts of invasive species. By mapping the legacy of past plant introductions, this research reveals how long-standing patterns of human decision-making contribute to today’s invasive species challenges. Results will offer translational solutions for public and industry stakeholders, including practices that support both biodiversity and economic sustainability, as well as resources to help communities maintain the economic benefits of plant trade while reducing its unintended environmental costs. This research draws on a novel dataset spanning two centuries and over two million records of plant trade introductions from georeferenced seed and nursery catalogs, which capture the introduction history for nearly 20,000 plant species. By mapping the spatial and temporal frequency of introductions, this work identifies the patterns of human activity – driven by economic and social factors – that are most likely to lead to biological invasions. These data also provide an opportunity to address one of the most fundamental questions in spatial ecology: what limits a species fundamental vs. realized niche? Using niche models, nursery locations can be used to approximate a species ‘potential niche’: environments where, due to human activity, plants can grow and survive in the absence of competition or dispersal limitation. When compared to locations where species invade, the potential niche reveals how species respond to novel environments and what factors limit their distributions outside of cultivation. By linking the past to the present and assessing the benefits versus impacts of plants in trade, the study aims to translate new knowledge into more informed decision-making. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.