Collaborative Research: Building a Framework for the Causes of and Solutions to the Pluralistic Ignorance Gap on Climate Change

When faced with large, complex societal problems, people rely on information about others’ beliefs and behaviors to decide whether and how to act. Adaptive social learning, however, only works when people accurately sense others’ thoughts and actions. Unfortunately, mounting evidence shows large, systematic and persistent errors in perceptions about the beliefs and actions of others. In particular, people most dramatically underestimate others’ climate concerns and willingness to act. These underestimates can stifle civic engagement, productive dialogue, policy support, and collective action by the general public, and discourage responses from elected officials, who respond to what they see as their constituents’ priorities. This research develops a framework to better understand why people have mispreceptions and what methods can improve the accuracy of perceptions. Closing this gap can encourage public and private actors to take steps towards addressing climate change. Furthermore, understanding the causes of persistent social misperceptions is relevant for a broad range of problems. By studying a fundamental cognitive challenge for collective action, this research contributes to scholarship on opinion formation and supports the development of communication strategies that take into account humankind’s social nature to more effectively mobilize climate action. Addressing collective action problems such as climate change requires individuals to engage in a host of coordinated behaviors to effect widespread systemic changes. Recent work suggests that individuals are more likely to take action when they believe that others share their concerns and desire for action. Yet, while most people are concerned about climate change, they systematically underestimate others’ concern, which can inhibit action toward addressing collective challenges. Drawing on interdisciplinary research, this project uses cross-sectional, longitudinal, and experimental designs across multiple samples to develop and test an integrative framework illuminating drivers of pervasive social misperceptions and pathways for correcting these biases. The proposed studies progress in three phases: 1) identifying and testing plausible explanations for social misperceptions; 2) developing and comparing methods for correcting misperceptions; and 3) testing interventions in high-impact and ecologically valid contexts, including with a sample of decision makers. The proposed research will advance the literatures in cognitive science, judgment and decision making, social psychology, and communications related to persistent and systematic misperceptions about collective norms. The research extends previous work by identifying and testing mechanisms by which misperceptions develop and persist and how they can be ameliorated, helping policymakers and educators tailor messages accordingly. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.