SCC-CIVIC-FA Track A: Dynamic Modeling of River Ecosystem Stability

This civic-university partnership develops a low-cost approach to monitor Alaska's Qanirtuuq river, located on the Yukon-Kuskokwim (Y-K) Delta. Rural villages are among the 75% of Alaskan communities with fewer than 1,000 people who rely primarily on subsistence, including the iconic pacific salmon. Like much of the Arctic, the Y-K Delta has grappled with unpredictable salmon escapements, and river dynamics threaten infrastructure and shipping routes. The Qanirtuuq is part of a braided river system, which has a tendency migrate laterally and to avulse (i.e., change course abruptly to a different path across the floodplain). Over the past decade residents near the river have documented signs that an avulsion may be imminent, thus threatening their source of water, fish, and transport and will force the town to relocate at great financial cost. Determining when and whether to move the village is therefore the community’s top priority. This project involves researchers from the University of Arkansas and Nalaquq, a geospatial company based in Quinhagak, to study riverine ecosystem stability and to develop efficient, technology-driven solutions to monitor changes. The project draws from fluvial geomorphology, remote sensing, salmon ecology, stable isotope analysis, and local knowledge. The pilot project establishes a geospatial database that incorporates data integral for environmental and ecological modeling with local observations and develops maps and community-based workflows that can assess the risk of migration and avulsion, as well as population stability in the five species of salmon. It also delivers geospatial training so community leadership can: 1) monitor river movement to determine whether the village will need to resettle in a new location, 2) identify areas susceptible to waterway erosion impacting infrastructure and navigation, 3) and monitor the ecological health of salmon populations. This multidisciplinary approach fills a gap between community priorities and scientific research, and it means that rural communities that are impacted by environmental change will move towards independent, efficient, and locally led decision making for interventions. Thus, this collaborative effort delivers a model that other rural Alaskan communities can adapt, replicate, and deploy. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.