Planning: Arctic Futures: Undersea Mining, Artificial Intelligence, and Security on a New Maritime Frontier

As the polar seas melt, a new maritime frontier is emerging from the ice. The imminent opening of the northern oceans to navigation, science, and industry is an event of historical significance. Governments, corporations and communities are already planning for these changes. Of particular interest are undersea deposits of critical minerals essential to the supply chains of semiconductors and other technologies used in artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and energy transitions. While it is certain that a new rush to the North is well underway, we know little about: 1) the wider dimensions of seafloor critical mineral mining in the Arctic; 2) how its hazards, risks, and benefits are being understood and distributed; and 3) how planning for this maritime industry is related to the national security concerns, infrastructure development, and economic changes that are shaping Arctic futures. More social scientific research is needed into these topics of broad importance for the United States. This planning project supports the activities needed to organize a future study about the initiation of undersea critical mineral mining in the new Arctic maritime frontier. It answers the questions: Why is the rise of this maritime industry significant and deserving of social scientific research? And what will it take to launch the first longitudinal and interdisciplinary study about the ways that undersea critical mineral mining and its impacts are coming into focus along the Western Alaskan coast? To assess the feasibility for later research, this planning project identifies high priority issues for investigation and tests how to build a team of experts and stakeholders best suited to explore these concerns. This project will thus advance understandings of all four priority areas of the U.S. Arctic Research Plan 2022-2026, as it lays the foundation for successful research into issues related to complex systemic interactions, community resilience and health, risk and hazard mitigation, and economies and livelihoods in the Arctic. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.