CAREER: Quantifying the Dynamics and Spatiotemporal Variability of Blocking Events Using Linear Response Functions and the Buckingham-Pi Theorem

An atmospheric blocking event describes the occurrence of a large-scale, quasi-stationary, high-pressure system that persists between 5 days to a few weeks in the extratropics. Its appearance diverts the jet stream flow (altering nearby weather) and can contribute to extreme events like heat waves and droughts. Predicting blocking events is difficult. Our understanding of blocking events is poor, and complete theory for blocking still does not exist. The outcome of this project will advance our knowledge of blocking, which will enhance our capabilities to better forecast midlatitude weather extremes and project the response of blocking to climate change. In addition to training doctoral students, the project will develop (1) a Research Experiences for Teachers (RET) program with workshops focused on developing innovative teaching materials on climate science, and (2) a course to educate college students from non-geoscience quantitative majors about climate science. Specifically, this proposal seeks to understand blocking dynamics and their spatiotemporal variability as well as their response to climate change. The research objectives are to: (1) assess the role of positive eddy-blocking feedback mechanism in blocking persistence, (2) evaluate the impact of large-scale circulation on blocking characteristics, (3) examine the impact of climate change to blocking, and (4) investigate the roles of latent heating in the previous objectives. The research approach includes an innovative use of the linear response function theory, Buckingham-pi scale analysis, and wavelet analysis in a hierarchy of models, from dry/moist two-layer quasi-geostrophic to dry/moist idealized general circulation models (GCMs) to large-ensemble simulations from fully coupled GCMs. The RET program will provide 7 research positions for high-school science teachers, who will develop introductory lessons on climate change. These lessons will be shared with 100s of science teachers through workshops and other venues and will be taught to 10000s of Houston public school students, many from the underrepresented groups. The developed class will result in novel materials for introducing climate science/research to a broad group of STEM students, strengthening efforts aimed at training a skilled future workforce in climate science. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.