Collaborative Research: FIRE-MODEL: Advancing nighttime fire behavior predictions to improve safety and resilience

Wildland fires and associated aerosol and gas emissions impact millions of people across the U.S., with longer and more-intense fire seasons predicted to continue in the coming decades. Many of the challenges with fire emission estimates and predictions stem from a lack of information on fire behavior at sufficient spatial and temporal coverage. This project addresses these challenges by using aircraft and satellite imaging products to infer combustion efficiency and fire fronts, thus smoke emissions and air quality impact, with potential benefits to public safety and public health. The project will train undergraduate and graduate students for interdisciplinary fire research, guide the fire community on the use of the publicly available new satellite products, and inform enhancements to infrastructure for research and fire suppression. The project will use satellite data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The VIIRS observed visible energy fraction (VEF), defined as the ratio of fire radiative power (FRP) in the visible spectrum to FRP of the full spectrum, identifies the location and intensity of flaming combustion. VEF has been suggested to correlate with the mix of flaming and smoldering combustion or modified combustion efficiency (MCE) of the fire. However, its direct validation is lacking. The project hypothesizes that such new data of VEF and MCE from a remote sensing platform can be used to advance the prediction of fire growth and decay and the associated emissions of aerosols and trace gases. To test the hypothesis, the project will carry out field campaigns using multiple platforms from space, aircraft, and ground-based measurements to further validate the data product of VEF and MCE at night and link these parameters with the emissions. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.