CAREER: A Statistical Tool to Integrate the Magnitudes and Times of Occurrence of Extreme Events with Application in Hazards Planning and Management

Every year, natural disasters triggered by hydrological extremes such as floods and drought cause significant loss of life and property damage in the U.S. A shift has been observed in the magnitude and timing of these extreme events. This CAREER project will use a combination of statistical analysis and hydrologic modeling to investigate the underlying reasons for this shift. The project will use the results of the analysis to develop innovative tools for identifying hazards and managing them. Open-source software for data analysis will be made available to hydrologists and water resource scientists. The project outcomes will help mitigate hazards and improve communities’ resilience. The project will support an outreach program for K-12 students and the public to learn about disaster risks and mitigation. The team will also develop short courses for extension agents who work with farmers and communities. A discernible shift in the magnitude and time of occurrence of hydrological extremes has been observed. Classical extreme value analysis, which assumes that the distribution from which the extremes have been drawn and its parameters must remain constant in time, is no longer applicable. From an operational standpoint, there is a need to understand what is driving the change in hydrologic extremes. This project will (i) quantify the historic and predicted shifts in the magnitude and timing of extremes; (ii) identify the direction of change, and (ii) determine the mechanisms generating the change. The project will develop Innovative tools to integrate this information into risk assessment frameworks. Project outcomes will provide valuable insights that can be incorporated into hazards planning and management, decision-making processes, and the formulation of science-based policies. This research will be integrated with an educational program to empower the next generation of a globally competitive STEM workforce. Through teaching, mentoring, and outreach activities, students will acquire the analytical skills to investigate the impact of hydrologic extremes in their chosen field and develop mitigation strategies to safeguard their communities, society, environment, and the economy. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.