Collaborative Research: Mechanisms Governing Changes in Temperature and Precipitation over the Andes Mountains

Work performed in this project will advance the basic science of mountain meteorology by looking at what is perhaps the world's best natural laboratory for the topic: the Andes. The Andes are unique in their geographical coverage, starting in the equatorial tropics and extending 4,000 miles through the warm subtropics to the coldest latitudes of the Southern Cone. In the U.S., mountain snowpack is an essential water resource for the Western States. However, mountains are also a source of weather hazards including sudden downpours, blizzards, and rapid temperature changes. The dual nature of mountains and their expansive reach across the U.S. make research on mountain meteorology a matter of national need.The project will also support workforce training by supporting graduate students and providing research experiences for undergraduate students. The research leverages a major recent investment in high-resolution weather modeling over South America. One effort of the project will focus on understanding the mechanisms governing temperature and precipitation change patterns over the Andes using a single set of simulations in which several hypotheses can be tested. A second effort will focus on quantifying uncertainties related to differences in model resolution and large-scale atmospheric dynamics. Uncertainties in these projections will be quantified and constrained using sensitivity experiments, statistical models, and observational constraints. As part of this effort, the high-resolution simulations will be used to train a generative artificial-intelligence (AI) model to downscale a larger ensemble of global simulations over South America, and these projections will be made available to stakeholders and the research community. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.