Daily Watcher Tracking Survey and Monitoring the Effects of War on Public Opinion

Participation in an external war test ability of leaders in authoritarian regimes to coordinate their policies. Yet survey data often indicates that a majority of citizens in authoritarian regimes continue to support the leader's military operations. To understand authoritarian leader's strategies and the domestic implications of these strategic actions, it is crucial to study how the population perceives the war and how it reacts to developments in real time. The Watcher Tracking Survey is a daily, nationally representative survey of public opinion in an authoritarian state that is involved in an external war. The researchers monitor changes in public attitudes toward a series of political issues related to the war in and political developments inside the state. They also use experimental designs to understand how the government’s propaganda and disinformation campaigns affect citizens’ attitudes and beliefs. Preliminary data suggest that state media outlets are highly effective at spreading false narratives within the population, including online. The Watcher survey has the following Broader Impacts (1) the project provides crucial and real-time information on the state and direction of domestic public opinion in an authoritarian state in a time of war, (2) it sheds light on the effectiveness of state propaganda and disinformation–a major national security concern, and (3) it generates a uniquely large and fine-grained dataset for policymakers and scholars of authoritarian politics. Scholars still have a weak understanding of the mechanisms by which an authoritarian government shapes public opinion and maintains support, particularly during moments of crisis like external war. Previous public opinion surveys often show that citizens in authoritarian countries support their government's military operations. Yet the infrequency of these surveys made it difficult to draw conclusions about the causes and consequences of changes in public opinion in these countries. To better isolate the effects of individual events and media narratives, the PIs launched the Watcher Tracking Survey, a daily, nationally representative survey of political attitudes and beliefs. The Watcher survey tracks key political indicators over time and uses survey experiments to assess the effects of unfolding propaganda narratives. This method of studying public opinion is more dynamic than traditional surveys, as the treatments respondents receive (e.g., shifting propaganda narratives and military developments) are not predetermined, but rather emerge organically as the war develops. The researchers extend their data collection through 2023 and use a sample size to 500 respondents that enables them to detect shifts in public opinion more precisely. This research makes important contributions to scholarship on topics related to censorship, propaganda, and public opinion in authoritarian regimes. The Watcher data shed light on the mechanisms behind state propaganda and its effects on citizen attitudes. In turn, the research helps scholars understand better how autocrats sustain public support for high-cost endeavors like military campaigns. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.