RAPID: Meteorology and Predictability of the August 2023 Maui Wildfires

This project will describe the meteorological conditions and predictability of the August 2023 Maui wildfires. Important scientific work includes determining the role of terrain, the contributions of the preceding climatological conditions, and clarifying the skill of weather models for this event. Understanding the meteorology of the 2023 Maui wildfire is critical for warning and protecting the population of Maui and the Hawaiian Islands. The findings of this project should lead to better decision-making regarding Maui wildfires, including guiding decisions regarding controlling power infrastructure, facilitating evacuations, warning the population, and enhancing adaptation/land-management decisions to reduce the threat. Furthermore, the insights gained in studying this event should enhance wildfire decision-making for all of Hawaii, and provide guidance useful for wildfires in other areas of the U.S. This project will examine the meteorological origins of the Maui fires including the role of terrain-induced weather features, such as high-amplitude mountain waves and downslope windstorms, the nature of the large-scale flow controlling the local weather features, the role of the passage of Hurricane Dora to the south, and the contribution of antecedent climatological conditions. It will clarify the meteorological ingredients required to produce such an unusual catastrophic event. This study will also examine the predictability of weather prediction models for such event, the required model resolution and physics to provide skillful predictions, and study prior cases of wildfire and strong winds across western Maui, to gain insights into the frequency of previous wildfire/strong wind events in the region and the meteorology associated with them. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.